Machismo is a type of commitment mechanism.
If you’re a perfectly rational nerd, people will always
expect you to do the rational thing. You
won’t be able to make credible threats unless it would be rational to carry out
the threat. And it seldom will be. After all, how often is it really rational to
whoop someone’s ass?
On the other hand, if you’re a tough, macho badass, people
will always expect you to do the tough, macho badass thing. You’ll always be able to make credible
threats, because carrying out threats is always the tough, macho badass thing
to do. And since the threats are
credible, you mostly won’t have occasion to carry them out.
This principle has a traditional application to monetary
policy. If your central banker is a
perfectly rational nerd, he’s going to let the inflation rate get too high,
because he won’t be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession. People won’t expect him to carry out the
threat, because in most cases it won’t be rational to carry out the
threat. After all, how often is it
really rational to cause a recession?
On the other hand, if your central banker is a tough, macho
badass, he’s not going to let the inflation rate get too high, because he will
be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession. People will expect him to carry out the
threat, because causing a recession is the tough, macho badass thing to do (for
a central banker). And since the threat
is credible, people will keep their prices down, and he won’t have to carry it
out. (OK, the economics is a little more
complicated, but that’s the general idea.)
So what kind of central banker do you want if you hope to
keep the inflation rate from getting too high?
Obviously you want a tough, macho badass. You want the kind of central banker that
likes to pick up small animals in his talons so that he can crush them to death
and serve them for dinner. You sure as
hell don’t want the kind who just likes to fly around looking pretty and making
cute cooing noises.
That theory made a lot of sense in the 1980’s, but the world
has changed. The inflation rate hasn’t
been too high for 20 years. We are in
the middle of a minor depression, and the way to get out of it is to threaten
inflation. Tell people they had damn
well better start doing something useful with their cash or else, as soon as
you get a chance, you’re going to make its purchasing power start
evaporating. Of course, when the time
comes, it won’t be rational to carry out that threat. If you’re a perfectly rational nerd, the
threat won’t be credible.
So what kind of central banker do you want if you hope to
get out of this depression? Obviously
you want a tough, macho badass. You want
the kind of central banker that likes to pick up small animals in his talons so
that he can crush them to death and serve them for dinner. I’m certainly no expert in ornithology, but
it just seems to me that “dove” is not the right term for that kind of central
banker.
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It isn't rational to expect tough macho bad asses to carry out their threats, because most of what they do is posturing. There are always jumped up tin pots making a lot of noise, but they typically cut and run when the going gets tough and they have to make hard choices.
The ones who tend to do what has to get done are usually the quiet, mousey types. They'll jump nine feet in the air when a car backfires, but they'll shiv granny and the five year old it that's what it takes.
(A good example is George W. Bush who made a lot of mouth noise about getting Bin Laden, but wimped out horribly. It took Poindexter Obama to actually gut the guy.)
As for fighting inflation, it was quiet, low key Paul Volcker who did what had to be done to fight inflation after all the pissing and moaning of the 70s. He put the economy into a tailspin without batting an eyelash.
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