Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Why Doves Are Really Hawks


Machismo is a type of commitment mechanism. 

If you’re a perfectly rational nerd, people will always expect you to do the rational thing.  You won’t be able to make credible threats unless it would be rational to carry out the threat.  And it seldom will be.  After all, how often is it really rational to whoop someone’s ass?

On the other hand, if you’re a tough, macho badass, people will always expect you to do the tough, macho badass thing.  You’ll always be able to make credible threats, because carrying out threats is always the tough, macho badass thing to do.  And since the threats are credible, you mostly won’t have occasion to carry them out.

This principle has a traditional application to monetary policy.  If your central banker is a perfectly rational nerd, he’s going to let the inflation rate get too high, because he won’t be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession.  People won’t expect him to carry out the threat, because in most cases it won’t be rational to carry out the threat.  After all, how often is it really rational to cause a recession?

On the other hand, if your central banker is a tough, macho badass, he’s not going to let the inflation rate get too high, because he will be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession.  People will expect him to carry out the threat, because causing a recession is the tough, macho badass thing to do (for a central banker).  And since the threat is credible, people will keep their prices down, and he won’t have to carry it out.  (OK, the economics is a little more complicated, but that’s the general idea.)

So what kind of central banker do you want if you hope to keep the inflation rate from getting too high?  Obviously you want a tough, macho badass.  You want the kind of central banker that likes to pick up small animals in his talons so that he can crush them to death and serve them for dinner.  You sure as hell don’t want the kind who just likes to fly around looking pretty and making cute cooing noises.

That theory made a lot of sense in the 1980’s, but the world has changed.  The inflation rate hasn’t been too high for 20 years.  We are in the middle of a minor depression, and the way to get out of it is to threaten inflation.  Tell people they had damn well better start doing something useful with their cash or else, as soon as you get a chance, you’re going to make its purchasing power start evaporating.  Of course, when the time comes, it won’t be rational to carry out that threat.  If you’re a perfectly rational nerd, the threat won’t be credible.

So what kind of central banker do you want if you hope to get out of this depression?  Obviously you want a tough, macho badass.  You want the kind of central banker that likes to pick up small animals in his talons so that he can crush them to death and serve them for dinner.  I’m certainly no expert in ornithology, but it just seems to me that “dove” is not the right term for that kind of central banker.



DISCLOSURE: Through my investment and management role in a Treasury directional pooled investment vehicle and through my role as Chief Economist at Atlantic Asset Management, which generally manages fixed income portfolios for its clients, I have direct or indirect interests in various fixed income instruments, which may be impacted by the issues discussed herein. The views expressed herein are entirely my own opinions and may not represent the views of Atlantic Asset Management. This article should not be construed as investment advice, and is not an offer to participate in any investment strategy or product

261 comments:

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Nick Rowe said...

Yep. What we need is a symmetrical hawk.

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In other words: You need 'Chuck Norris'!

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We need some Rooseveltian resolve.

Will said...

If that's right, seems like we need to install Mr. Robert Magabe at the Federal Reserve. Hjalmar Schacht would be my first choice, but he's tainted by his political associations and, even worse, dead.

Kaleberg said...

It isn't rational to expect tough macho bad asses to carry out their threats, because most of what they do is posturing. There are always jumped up tin pots making a lot of noise, but they typically cut and run when the going gets tough and they have to make hard choices.

The ones who tend to do what has to get done are usually the quiet, mousey types. They'll jump nine feet in the air when a car backfires, but they'll shiv granny and the five year old it that's what it takes.

(A good example is George W. Bush who made a lot of mouth noise about getting Bin Laden, but wimped out horribly. It took Poindexter Obama to actually gut the guy.)

As for fighting inflation, it was quiet, low key Paul Volcker who did what had to be done to fight inflation after all the pissing and moaning of the 70s. He put the economy into a tailspin without batting an eyelash.

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judionline77 said...

If that's right, seems like we need to install Mr. Robert Magabe at the Federal Reserve. Hjalmar Schacht would be my first choice, but he's tainted by his political associations and, even worse, dead.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Very good post you have shared herer thanks a lot
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

you’re going to make its purchasing power start evaporating. Of course, when the time comes, it won’t be rational to carry out that threat. If you’re a perfectly rational nerd, the threat won’t be credible.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

We need some Rooseveltian resolve.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Thank you, I've been seeking for info about this subject matter for ages and yours is the best I have discovered so far.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Bush who made a lot of mouth noise about getting Bin Laden, but wimped out horribly. It took Poindexter Obama to actually gut the guy
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

The views expressed herein are entirely my own opinions and may not represent the views of Atlantic Asset Management.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

If that's right, seems like we need to install Mr. Robert Magabe at the Federal Reserve
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Technology is nothing. What's important is that you have a faith in people
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

I want for you to ape sense great to publish this article, which in turn discuss several things
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

When virtue and modesty enlighten her charms, the lustre of a beautiful woman is brighter than the stars of heaven
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Type appreciate going up on your sharing, and cost your time while in this. Please keep adding inform
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

I appreciate your blog post, beautifully expressed and well written.
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Thank you for sharing this.. I learned something from your post. Keep up the good work
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

And since the threat is credible, people will keep their prices down
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

thanks.Quality posts is the crucial to invite the visitors to visit the web page, that's what this web page is providing
Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

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Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Good post. I learn some thing tougher on distinct blogs everyday. Most commonly it really is stimulating to learn to read content material from other writers and exercise a specific thing there.
Judi Bola

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judionline77 said...

You won’t be able to make credible threats unless it would be rational to carry out the threat
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

And it seldom will be. After all, how often is it really rational to whoop someone’s ass
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

On the other hand, if you’re a tough, macho badass, people will always expect you to do the tough, macho badass thing
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

You’ll always be able to make credible threats, because carrying out threats is always the tough
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

macho badass thing to do. And since the threats are credible, you mostly won’t have occasion to carry them out
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

This principle has a traditional application to monetary policy
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

If your central banker is a perfectly rational nerd
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

he’s going to let the inflation rate get too high
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

because he won’t be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession. People won’t expect him to carry out the threat
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

because in most cases it won’t be rational to carry out the threat. After all
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

how often is it really rational to cause a recession
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

On the other hand, if your central banker is a tough, macho badass, he’s not going to let the inflation rate get too high
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

because he will be able to make a credible threat to cause a recession
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

People will expect him to carry out the threat, because causing a recession is the tough
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

macho badass thing to do for a central banker. And since the threat is credible
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

people will keep their prices down, and he won’t have to carry it out.
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

OK, the economics is a little more complicated, but that’s the general idea
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

So what kind of central banker do you want if you hope to keep the inflation rate from getting too high
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

judionline77 said...

Better that he get his mind on something productive and useful.
Judi Bola

Judi Bola

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