Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Bond Market Instability in a Liquidity Trap

For simplicity, let’s assume that the Fed’s policy instrument (now that the federal funds rate is stuck near zero) is the 10-year Treasury note. As an example, suppose the yield is 4%. In that case, it’s all but certain that the Fed, if it chooses, can do something to stimulate the economy and raise the inflation rate.

For example, suppose the Fed were to bid the 10-year note yield down from 4% to 1%. It would take out a whole slew of marginal noteholders in the process. Banks that had been satisfied with a 4% return would be unsatisfied with a 1% return and would lend more aggressively. Domestic investors that had been satisfied with a 4% return would be unsatisfied with 1% and would bite the bullet and buy stock. International investors would be unsatisfied and would shift their investments into foreign assets, thus weakening the dollar and making US products more competitive. Households would refinance their mortgages and spend some portion of the increased cash flow. Others who previously couldn’t afford houses could now afford them, so demand for houses and home furnishings would go up. And so on. With such a huge policy action, it’s virtually certain that business activity would accelerate enough to reverse any deflationary pressure.

One way to think about that example is in terms of the natural rate of interest, the rate at which the prospective scenario theoretically crosses the line between disinflation and inflation. Suppose the expected inflation rate is 1.5% and the natural real interest rate on the 10-year note is 1%. Then, with a 4% yield, there is a disinflationary gap of 1.5% (that is, 4% nominal yield, minus 1.5% expected inflation, minus 1% natural real interest rate). If expectations remained constant, the hypothetical policy action – reducing the nominal yield to 1% – would reverse the 1.5% disinflationary gap into a 1.5% inflationary gap, thus switching the prospective scenario from one of disinflation to one of inflation.

However, expectations would not remain constant. Naturally, if the prospective scenario switched from disinflation to inflation, the expected inflation rate would rise. Moreover, since the inflationary scenario involves an economic recovery, the natural real interest rate would rise too. When disinflationary stagnation was expected, there wasn’t much reason to borrow money, or to invest the money one already had in any productive project, so it would require a very low interest rate to get an inflationary scenario going. When inflationary recovery is expected, there are much better investment opportunities, so even a relatively high interest rate could justify the kind of demand that would lead to recovery and inflation. Perhaps the natural real interest rate would rise to 2% and the expected inflation rate would rise to 2.5%, leaving a very large (3.5%) inflationary gap at a 1% nominal yield.

Indeed, these expectations would even create an inflationary gap (of 0.5%) if the yield were still at 4%. Thus the Fed could let the yield go back up to 4% and still produce the desired effect of stimulating recovery and raising the inflation rate. In fact, the Fed wouldn’t even need to bid down the yield in the first place. If the Fed had enough credibility, all it would have to do is threaten to bid down the yield. It’s even possible to come up with a plausible example where the Fed’s threat to bid down the yield causes the yield to go up. That’s the magic of expectations. And that’s why, when the yield begins at 4%, it won’t be very sensitive to disinflationary shocks. A disinflationary shock will push down the yield a little bit, but the Fed can make a credible threat to push it down further, and, paradoxically, the result will be a that it won’t have to go down further. Consequently, a yield of 4% is fairly stable.

But now let’s take another example. Suppose the yield starts out at 1%. The economy is expected to be weak, so the natural real interest rate (for the 10-year note) is 0%. Say the expected inflation rate is 0.5%, leaving a disinflationary gap of 0.5% even at the 1% nominal yield. What can the Fed do?

Theoretically, given the parameters that I’ve imagined, the Fed can still shift the scenario from disinflation/stagnation to inflation/recovery by bidding the yield down to zero. That would leave an inflationary gap of 0.5%. But in reality, we never know exactly what the natural real interest rate is. If the yield were 1% and the economy still appeared to be stagnating, bond market participants would rightly question the Fed’s ability to revive the economy. A drop in the yield from 1% to 0% might do the trick, or it might not. Given this lack of confidence in the Fed’s ability to revive the economy, the threat to do so (by hypothetically bidding down the yield) would no longer be credible. The only way the Fed could potentially revive the economy would be by actually bidding down the yield.

And what if the Fed chose not to do so? Since I’ve assumed a disinflationary gap, the inflation rate would, in the absence of policy action, tend to decline. To the extent that this decline were unanticipated, yields would then tend to fall. Thus, no matter what the Fed does or doesn’t do, the fact that the yield is low (and thus the Fed lacks a credible threat to revive the economy) creates a reason why the yield should go even lower.

Of course, in equilibrium, this decline should have been anticipated and should already have happened. But suppose there is a disinflationary shock. It has the direct effect of lowering the yield because it is disinflationary in its own right. But then it has the indirect effect of reducing the Fed’s ability to make a credible threat to revive the economy. This indirect effect causes the yield to decline more than it otherwise would. Thus, the lower bond yields go, the more unstable they become in response to shocks.

(Note that the process also works in reverse. If bond yields are low, and we are in an disinflationary environment, but we get an inflationary shock, not only does it raise the yield by increasing inflation directly, it also increases the Fed’s ability to stimulate the economy, thus adding an additional inflationary component and raising the yield still further. Conversely, when bond yields are high, there is little question of the Fed’s ability to stimulate the economy, so an inflationary shock does not alter that perceived ability, and it has only its direct effect on the yield.)

So what does all this mean? Well, for one thing, it suggests that, with bond yields having fallen significantly over the past few months, the Fed ought to get off its ass and start making credible threats to revive the economy before bond yields fall even more and reduce its ability to do so. For another thing, it means that we shouldn’t be too surprised to see the bond market behaving oddly. Whether or not one can reasonably call it a bubble (and the term may not be entirely inappropriate), it is quite normal for the bond market to react strongly to disinflationary shocks when the yield is already low.



DISCLOSURE: Through my investment and management role in a Treasury directional pooled investment vehicle and through my role as Chief Economist at Atlantic Asset Management, which generally manages fixed income portfolios for its clients, I have direct or indirect interests in various fixed income instruments, which may be impacted by the issues discussed herein. The views expressed herein are entirely my own opinions and may not represent the views of Atlantic Asset Management. This article should not be construed as investment advice, and is not an offer to participate in any investment strategy or product.

113 comments:

Nick Rowe said...

I really like this post Andy. I really like how you say that "threatening" to push the rate down could cause the rate to go up (if the threat is credible). That is a really clear way of thinking about and explaining this paradox.

It was exactly this sort of paradox I was going after when i argued that the Fed should buy pro-cyclical assets, not bonds.

The Money Demand Blog said...

"But suppose there is a disinflationary shock. It has the direct effect of lowering the yield because it is disinflationary in its own right. But then it has the indirect effect of reducing the Fed’s ability to make a credible threat to revive the economy. This indirect effect causes the yield to decline more than it otherwise would. Thus, the lower bond yields go, the more unstable they become in response to shocks."
So it appears that when yields are low, markets are already doing the Fed's job in driving the yields down. This means that if Fed actually decides to carry out the threat of driving the yields down, we could see yields going up.

Adam P said...

On the first reading I can't find much to disagree with so I'll skip the traditional "yes, but..." and just say:

Really nice post mate.

Anonymous said...

"Banks that had been satisfied with a 4% return would be unsatisfied with a 1% return and would lend more aggressively."

The bank regulators that come into the bank where I work are pressing us to be very careful about lending risks. So don't bet on the above statement.

David Pearson said...

Andy,

Banks have $1.2tr "invested" at a paltry .25% yield. If the opportunity cost of loanable funds drove lending decisions, then we would already be seeing torrid credit growth. Further, a decline in Treasury yields would also lower the interest on corporate bonds. So reducing the yield on Treasuries would reduce profits on lending, assuming credit spreads stayed the same. In fact this is one key reason banks have been such poor performers: lending margins are declining with the 10yr even while credit costs may begin to rise again.

BTW, John Hempton's blog had an excellent post on what happened to Japanese bank earnings as JGB yields collapsed. It made the banks less profitable, which in turn made them hoard more capital and make less loans.

The basic problem with QE is that it makes markets front-run Fed bond buying. That forces money into counter-cyclical bonds and reduces bank profitability overall. I would say our current experience, plus Japan's, tells us that QE in the absence of a higher inflation target is actually deflationary. I would make an exception for QE that is perceived as being "reckless", in that it implies higher inflation going forward. From reading Fed minutes and speeches, the context for Fed QE decision-making is anything but reckless: they spend so much time on "exit plans" as to guarantee that inflation expectations will not rise as a result. When the Fed says, "we will accept more inflation later for less deflation now", QE will work.

Andy Harless said...

David,

"Banks have $1.2tr "invested" at a paltry .25% yield. If the opportunity cost of loanable funds drove lending decisions, then we would already be seeing torrid credit growth."

Not so. The marginal elements of a bank's portfolio are either loans or bonds. Decrease the return on bonds, and there is more incentive to make loans. At the same time, the bank can continue to arbitrage at the short end.

If I were a cautious investor and had a portfolio that was only, say, 30% invested, with the rest in cash, if you reduced the return on one of my investment vehicles, I would still shift the contents of the invested part of my portfolio. Until banks prefer to hold 100% reserves, we can expect them to respond to yield changes.

"Further, a decline in Treasury yields would also lower the interest on corporate bonds. So reducing the yield on Treasuries would reduce profits on lending, assuming credit spreads stayed the same."

That is just to say that the impact of QE could be through the corporate bond market rather than through bank lending. The effect is the same: borrowing is a better deal for corporations, and any given project becomes more profitable (and more feasible) relative to financing cost.

In any case, lending is only one of several channels through which QE would operate, as noted in my second paragraph. I still find it implausible that a very large decline in yields (which the Fed could certainly effect if it chose to do so and were committed to it, provided that yields were sufficiently high to begin with) would not be sufficient to revive the economy (possibly at the risk of overshooting the inflation target, since asset purchases are an imprecise tool).

I agree with you, though, that the Fed isn't likely to pursue the policies that would be necessary. Front-running is a sensible response as long as the Fed is expected to undershoot, which it is likely to do. The Fed is promoting bond market instability by doing asset purchases that are always expected to be too small to revive the economy. And in doing so, it allows the situation to deteriorate, the same way it did in Japan, which brings yields down (due to lower expected inflation and lower chance of recovery), which further increases the instability.

David Pearson said...

Andy,

One thing I notice most debate tends to focuss on point expectations of inflation, when in reality the range, or distribution, of estimates matters to households and corporations.

Take the statement, "there is a significant chance of onerous deflation if the Fed does not do "enough", and there is only a slight chance of a l.t. inflation overshoot if the Fed acts." The correct reaction to that distribution is to hedge against deflation risk, i.e. by increasing precautionary balances. Imagine if, instead, the Fed said, "there is a significant chance of an inflation overshoot if we do "x", but it is still worth it to avoid deflation." The response would be to hedge against inflation, and velocity would increase.

I'm curious if you disagree, and think that targeting can succeed without creating an asymmetry in expectations?

Andy Harless said...

David,

I agree that the higher moments matter, and I also agree that, in practice, there is no policy that would sufficiently shift the mean without also affecting the higher moments in important ways. So if one is going to do a complete analysis, it has to include the higher moments. I guess one should regard discussions in terms of the mean as shorthand for a more complex reality. (In one of my early posts, I used a poker game analogy, which does suggest thinking more in terms of the risk of inflation rather than the expected level of inflation.)

Frank said...

Andy, Good Post. There's some chatter whether any one entity, even the Fed, can make a meaningful splash at the long end, that is there must be credible suasion accompanying the buying.

Agree that an expedient fix is to flatten the curve 'til debt is free. Just curious if the Fed has the chops to do it.

Stephen Williamson said...

Andy,

I think a lot of the volatility at long maturities recently can be explained by the Fed failing to explain itself. Fed people are always yacking about "anchored expectations," but it looks to me like the boat is floating about. The big question is whether the Fed can buy or sell long-maturity Treasuries and have any effect. You think so, and so does Ben Bernanke, apparently, but I don't think anyone has explained why.

Steve Williamson

JP Koning said...

If the Fed buys the 10 year till its yield falls from 4% to 1%, what's to prevent banks no longer happy with a 1% yield on the 10 year from shifting into higher yielding government maturities (5 yr, 30 yr) rather than aggressively lending?

David Beckworth said...

Great post. The problem is that many influential observers don't get this and conclude the low long-term yields are a result of financial repression. The day when they come to realize the low long-term yields indicate the Fed is not doing enough is the day we get a real recovery.

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1. Mengalami gejala kesemutan. Penderita darah tinggi akan sering mengalami kesemutan pada bagian wajah, tangan dan kakinya.Ini adalah gejala darah tinggi yang paling umum, sering juga dialami oleh para penderita kolesterol tinggi.
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1. Jenis penyakit kardiovaskular. Penyakit hipertensi, diabetes dan kolesterol tinggi adalah jenis penyakit penyebab stroke. Bila dalam keadaan yang tidak stabil kadar lemak darah, kadar gula darah dan tekanan darah tinggi bisa mengakibatkan komplikasi stroke yang secepatnya harus diatasi dengan obat stroke yang ampuh.
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3. Kelebihan berat badan atau obesitas sebagai penyebab stroke lainnya. Dengan kadar lemak yang menumpuk dalam tubuh akan memicu penyumbatan pembuluh darah hingga memicu stroke. Penggunaan obat stroke bagi penderita obesitas harus secara efektif dilakukan untuk mencegah bahaya yang lebih parah.
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1. Faktor usia. Pada kalangan usia diatas 60 tahun resiko naiknya tekanan darah akan semakin besar. Itu disebabkan karena faktor elastisitas pembuluh darah yang telah mulai berkurang. Pada kalangan ini diperlukan metode pengobatan dengan obat darah tinggi yang tepat agar sistem peredaran darah dapat berfungsi kembali secara normal.
2. Faktor makanan. Penyebab darah tinggi bisa berasal dari faktor makanan yang mengandung berbagai zat hingga tekanan darah bisa beresiko meningkat. Yang termasuk kategori makanan pantangan untuk penderita darah tinggi diantaranya adalah jenis makanan berlemak, makanan dengan kadar garam tnggi, makanan dengan kadar zat kimia, makanan yang diawetkan, makanan mengandung kalori tinggi. Untuk menurunkan tekanan darah tersebut diperlukan obat darah tinggi yang disertai dengan pola makan sehat yang bisa membantu menurunkan tekanan darah.
3. Faktor gaya hidup dan kebiasaan buruk. Penyebab darah tinggi yang dimaksud adalah kebiasaan merokok, begadang, meminum alcohol yang bisa mengganggu sistem peredaran darah, memicu pengentalan darah dan menimbulkan pembekuan sel darah yang memicu stroke. Bila hal ini sampai terjadi penanganan yang dibutuhkan bukan sekedar dengan menggunakan obat darah tinggi tapi juga penanganan untuk masalah komplikasi yang muncul.
4. Faktor obesitas. Penyebab darah tinggi yang diakibatkan karena kadar lemak dalam tubuh berlebih bisa memunculkan penyakit lain seperti kolesterol dan gangguan penyempitan saluran pembuluh darah akibat plak lemak dalam darah. Untuk itu gunakan obat darah tinggi yang mampu menurunkan tekanan darah hingga stabil agar kondisi hipertensi tidak terus berlanjut.
5. Stress. Peningkatan hormone yang menimbulkan stress juga dapat meningkatkan resiko penyebab darah tinggi. Seorang penderita hipertensi yang dipicu dari stress dapat menggunakan obat darah tinggi secara tepat.

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