Eugene Fama acknowledges a point that Brad DeLong made about inventories (that much or all of the reduced investment from a fiscal stimulus is unintended inventory investment, which is technically counted as investment but which is not useful). Professor Fama argues that the amount of unintended inventory investment is not very large.
But again I take issue with both the original Fama argument and the DeLong counterargument. First, consider the latter. The Keynesian model does not depend on inventories. Economists often teach the model to undergraduates without mentioning inventories. And yet in the Keynesian model (in the simple version, or when there is a liquidity trap), private investment does not get displaced by the increased federal deficit. Rather private savings increases just enough to finance the increased deficit.
For example, suppose there is $100 billion tax cut, and suppose the marginal propensity to consume is 0.8. The people who receive the cut save $20 billion. The people in the first round of multiplier effects get $80 billion in extra income and save $16 billion of that. And so on. As I hinted in my previous post, if you calculate the infinite sum (or estimate it by simulation, if you don't like calculus), it comes to exactly $100 billion. It's no accident that the additional savings exactly compensates for the government's additional borrowing.
The Keyensian model is a reasonable special case in which the compensation is exact. More generally, I think it would be unreasonable to expect private savings not to rise at all in response to an increased deficit, and indeed, in the case where there is a liquidity trap, I think the exact compensation in the Keynesian model is a very good approximation to what would actually happen.
Per Professor Fama:
I want to restate my argument in simple terms.As to the first point, it depends on what you mean by "financed." Certainly the government needs to obtain cash, but that's a rather trivial matter. The Fed can create any cash the government needs, and as I argue elsewhere, such money creation isn't even necessary when the interest rate is zero, because T-bills have become essentially equivalent to money. In the purely monetary sense of the word "finance," the Treasury can effectively finance the stimulus by printing its own money.Are any of these statements incorrect?
- Bailouts and stimulus plans must be financed.
- If the financing takes the form of additional government debt, the added debt displaces other uses of the funds.
- Thus, stimulus plans only enhance incomes when they move resources from less productive to more productive uses.
But I don't think the argument is about financing in the strictly monetary sense. The savings-investment equation, which is presented as central to the argument, says that
in any given year private investment must equal the sum of private savings, corporate savings (retained earnings), and government savings (the government surplus, which is more likely negative, that is, a deficit)...The issue is whether the government has reduced its savings in the sense of having reduced its net assets. The answer depends on whether you believe in Ricardian equivalence (as an underlying fact about government borrowing, not necessarily as a description of household behavior). If you do, then the government is using its future power of taxation to create a new asset called "deferred revenue," which it can set off against its new liability, leaving its net assets unchanged. It's like when someone borrows money to buy stock on margin: they haven't reduced their savings, they've merely added an offsetting asset and liability to their balance sheet. In that case, government savings (or rather dissavings) is unaffected by the stimulus. If you don't believe in Ricardian Equivalence, then yes, the deficit does need to be financed, but...
As to the second point, it depends on what you mean by "displaces." If you mean there is displacement ceteris paribus for the changes in the total amount of funds available, then yes, it does displace other uses of funds. But my point is that it is unreasonable to assume that the total amount of funds available will be constant. Rather, it is almost certain to rise significantly, as the government's debt is itself a vehicle for net private savings (in contrast, for example, to personal debt, which is savings for one private party and dissavings for another). In the absence of Ricardian Equivalence, new wealth has been created, so there is more to save. To avoid saving more, people would have to increase their consumption dramatically.
Thus, as to the third point, no: unless people behave in accordance with Ricardian Equivalence, the stimulus almost certainly also mobilizes idle resources, by increasing total income (i.e. adding to total wealth), thus allowing private saving to rise even as consumption also rises. Aside from Ricardian Equivalence, and excluding the very special and unlikely case where private savings do not rise, the only way the stimulus would fail to mobilize resources is if those resources were not really idle in the first place (in which case the stimulus would only cause inflation).
UPDATE: More from Brad DeLong, and the story is starting to sound a little bit more like one I recognize:
...increases in government spending lead to unexpected declines in inventories and unexpected declines in inventories lead to firms to expand production, which leads to increases in income and saving.The initial inventory disinvestment (in response to demand created by the stimulus) is only a minor part of the story. And inventories only matter at all because they happen to be the way firms get products to market. My logic would work even in a world without inventories, where firms could instantaneously change production in response to demand. In real terms, the new demand would result immediately in more production, which would raise real incomes and lead to more real saving out of those incomes.
That's the "real" story, but I understand Professor Fama to be telling a financial story rather than a "real" one. He uses words like "funds" that have meaning only in a financial world. The nominal national income accounts are compiled in financial terms -- based on accounting statements and the like -- so the national income identity must hold in financial terms, and I take that to be the basis of Professor Fama's argument.
Therefore I state my counterargument in financial terms: financially speaking, the increase in income occurs as soon as money changes hands. The most straightforward case is a tax rebate. As soon as people receive the money, it is income, whether or not anything new has been produced, and whether or not any change in inventories has occurred. (Certainly the people who receive the rebate think it is already income, as do their accountants, as do the people who compile the income side of national accounts.) They have a choice whether to save or spend that income. Any income they spend will go to someone else, who will have the same choice, and so on until it all gets saved. Technically, some of what I call saving will take the form of inventory disinvestment, but that's a minor point. It would work the same way if all production were done on the spot.
UPDATE2: Leigh Caldwell's comment makes me realize that I have exaggerated the importance of the government's creation of new wealth, because my same logic applies when the source of the increased consumption is a change in consumer behavior. The general principle is that every act of consumption by one entity (household or government) is an act of saving (or inventory reduction) by someone else.
When I take money out of savings to purchase something from a company, the company records part of the purchase as a profit and part as a reduction in inventory. The profit immediately becomes part of retained earnings and thus corporate savings. If the firm hires another worker in order to replenish its inventories, the cost of replenishing those inventories becomes the worker's income. Any part of that income that the worker chooses to spend becomes part of someone else's income (or someone else's inventory reduction), and so on until there is an overall increase in savings just large enough to offset exactly the original reduction in my savings. (I'm assuming all inventories are eventually replenished. Otherwise part of my purchase becomes not savings but a reduction in unproductive inventory investment, but the funds available for productive investment are unchanged.)
Ultimately, the only way to change the quantity of savings is by investment. For example, suppose a company decides to hire a programmer to develop a major piece of custom software that it will use in its business. The programmer's pay becomes part of his or her savings (until it is spent and becomes part of someone else's savings), but there is no reduction in retained earnings (savings) on the part of the company, because the company records the software as a capital asset. Thus the company's decision to make an investment has resulted in an increase in total savings. The same process works in reverse, if the company decides to lay off a programmer that would have been developing software. In the more general case, investment typically involves purchases from other businesses, and then the same logic in the paragraph above applies, except that purchaser does not reduce its savings, since it books the investment as a capital asset.
DISCLOSURE: Through my investment and management role in a Treasury directional pooled investment vehicle and through my role as Chief Economist at Atlantic Asset Management, which generally manages fixed income portfolios for its clients, I have direct or indirect interests in various fixed income instruments, which may be impacted by the issues discussed herein. The views expressed herein are entirely my own opinions and may not represent the views of Atlantic Asset Management.
211 comments:
1 – 200 of 211 Newer› Newest»I think if you want to count the government's ability to raise future tax revenues as an asset, you also need to count a liability on those who the taxes will be raised from. On this basis, there isn't really a net increase in wealth. However that's a minor quibble.
I think you are inadvertently giving too much credence to Professor Fama's original argument by glossing over the logical flaw in it.
His new summary, which you quote, is a better argument, and is the basis of the Keynesian proposal: bring idle resources into use.
I believe Brad DeLong has it right: the debate has arisen because Fama's original article was flawed. It was based on the classical model in which all markets immediately clear, but posited that "there are idle resources" which cannot happen in that model.
The debate should be about whether and how those resources can be brought into use. All the points about debt and savings are, to a first approximation, a wash (acknowledging that there can be second order effects on incentives).
I think I agree with just about everything you’ve said. Allow me to play it back this way:
I liked Montagu Norman’s “weekend model” as excerpted by Delong (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/01/eugene-fama-rederives-the-treasury-view-a-guestpost-from-montagu-norman.html#comments). It’s a reasonably close differential approximation to the instantaneous calculus logic that is required to understand all this, I think.
In a way you’ve implied that type of model here; e.g., when you say, “Perhaps, with today’s technology, you could spend it within a few seconds, but the instant after you receive the funds, your savings necessarily increase.”
This sort of thinking is very important stuff. It really should be a sort of prototype analysis.
In a very simple model, the first order change from a government stimulus would be an increase in GDP by the amount of the stimulus and an increase in saving by the same amount. New income generated by the stimulus must be saved because prior expenditure and investment is already accounted for in prior income. Then the investment multiplier kicks as people start to spend their new income, expanding GDP and incomes as second and higher order effects.
In linking the real economy interpretation to the financial one, I think it’s important to recognize Ricardian equivalence as balance sheet “transaction” but not an income statement one. If one “believes” in it, it means that today’s government borrowing must be offset by a “write-down” of household net worth by the amount of the Ricardian equivalence. The corresponding new income created is then added back at the same time. But the ultimate resolution of the postulated (now reserved) Ricardian equivalence will depend on the ultimate resolution of the Keynesian multiplier effects over future income and future income periods. Cumulative income effects over future periods will eventually converge or not converge to (i.e. fall short of or exceed) the balance sheet allowance.
Ricardian equivalence is a tax asset for the government and a tax liability for the private sector.
So whether or not you believe in Ricardian equivalence is irrelevant in terms of describing the dynamics of current and future income. It is only relevant to how you describe household wealth. In other words, the creation of new income as you describe it is independent from the creation of new wealth, which depends on the Ricardian equivalence debate. And the Ricardian equivalence debate is best framed by accounting for its probability in the form of a reserve against it in the accounting of household wealth (and in the accounting of government “wealth”, if we could ever get to that point).
You say, “My logic would work even in a world without inventories, where firms could instantaneously change production in response to demand.”
That seems logical and correct and right to me. I think the basic Keynesian model is best described in simple terms that way. The inventory adjustment is a real world first derivative adjustment to that model.
In connection with the inventory wrinkle, I wrote on Delong’s post:
“Inventories are the partial derivative of investment on the output side. New demand from any source is capable of converting a surplus inventory/investment state to a deficient inventory/investment state, given other demand and its effect on remaining inventory. An increase in aggregate employment, production, output, incomes, consumption, investment, and saving is then required to return inventory/investment to a balanced state as a proportion of the resulting total economy. The identity of saving and investment holds at any instant of the process, and does not prevent the absolute size of saving and investment from fluctuating as a function of its proportion of the total economy at the same instant.”
I think the problem is that everyone is forgetting what happens to the rate of interest and the excess supply of money.
Very short version: the excess demand for loans causes the rate of interest to rise, which creates an excess supply of money, which people lend to the government.
Slightly longer version here: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/01/loanable-funds-and-liquidity-preference-delong-vs-fama.html
Re UPDATE2,
I think the company records the entire purchase as a reduction in inventory. Purchase proceeds are used to pay off funding reflecting the cost of goods sold, while leaving cash profits in the bank as the offset to retained earnings.
Neither is cash in the bank an ‘investment’ nor is retained earnings ‘savings’ in national accounts terms. Both investment and savings have declined at the point of sale, by the amount of the sale.
The subsequent rebuilding of inventory and income is separate from the previous conversion of investment to consumption. The multiplier effect starts from the level of inventory investment remaining after the sale and is then determined by the new activity that follows.
Andy: let me try again. Suppose, just for the sake of argument, that both the demand and the supply of money were perfectly interest-inelastic. So you get a vertical LM curve, so fiscal policy wouldn't work, so Fama would be right. The excess demand for loans would create a rise in the rate of interest, but wouldn't create an excess supply of money, and so wouldn't create an increased demand for goods. You need to talk about the rate of interest and excess supply of money to explain to Fama why he's wrong.
I think inventories *have* to be in there. Without signals provided by changing prices, how do firms know they want to expand production unless they find themselves doing unexpected inventory disinvestment?
At least, that's the way I always understood it...
If inventories have to be in there, then the whole thing only works in an industrial economy. Imagine a country where all the manufactured goods are imported. Do inventories still have to be in there?
I think the logic needs to be able to work for such an economy (especially since it's not such a distant approximation to the US today), but you can't have inventories of lectures, inventories of backrubs, inventories of concerts, inventories of advice. (Technically, you could have inventories of software, inventories of DVD's, etc., but those are only at the trivial retail level: if stores are running out of Windows XP, that's not necessarily a signal that you need to develop Vista.)
So how do professors, massage therapists, musicians, consultants, software developers, etc., know when they want to expand production? I guess when they start making more sales, but there is no disinvestment involved.
everyone forgets about it because everyone thinks that it goes nowhere, like it or not we still pay for these taxes without assuring we claim it back.
everyone forgets about it because everyone thinks that it goes nowhere, like it or not we still pay for these taxes without assuring we claim it back.
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there is no accountability with any of this stuff and Obama. we voted for him and he isn't helping us. I kinda wish we were getting a 2010 stimulus check but it looks like there won't be a santa coming this year.
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먹튀다이스키는 2010년 5월부터 토토사이트 시장을 경험하며 다년간의 노하우를 보유한먹튀검증 전문 팀입니다. 빠르게 증가하고 있는 토토사이트들에 비해 완벽한 먹튀검증을 진행하고 있는 사이트는 극히 소수입니다. 이러한 현실을 개선해나가기 위하여 먹튀다이스키는 자체적인 먹튀검증 가이드라인을 수립하고 검증을 진행함으로써 회원분들에게 안전한 사이트만을 추천드리고 있습니다. 만약의 사고에 대비하여 100% 보증금 제도에 의하여 운영하고 있습니다. 다이스키가 추천드리는 사이트에서 먹튀 사고를 당하셨을 경우, 언제든지 다이스키 운영진에게 문의를 남겨주시면 피해금액 전액을 보증금을 통해 반환 해드리도록 하겠습니다. 다이스키가 추천하는 사이트들에서 생겨나는 모든 책임은 다이스키측에 있음을 알려드리며 회원분들의 안전한 배팅환경을 제공하기 위해 최선을 다하겠습니다.
실시간 먹튀 검증 커뮤니티 먹튀다이스키입니다. 먹튀다이스키는 15년 이상 검증만을 전문으로 진행해온 먹튀검증 전문팀이 운영하는 커뮤니티로 회원분들의 안전한 배팅 환경 제공을 목적으로 개설된 사이트입니다. 2019년을 기준으로 하루에 20개 이상의 토토사이트가 신규 개설되었으며 이중 75%는 먹튀사이트로 변질되고 있습니다. 그만큼 회원분들은 많은 먹튀 사고에 노출되고 있다고 해도 과언이 아닐 것입니다. 먹튀다이스키의 조사 결과에 따르면 작년 기준 하루 사고 금액이 약 10억원에 달하는 것으로 집계 되었습니다. 더 큰 문제는 이러한 먹튀사이트들이 하나만 존재하는 것이 아니라, 계열로 이루어져 있기에 잠재적으로는 더 많은 피해 사고의 확률이 내재되어 있다는 것입니다. 이러한 정보들을 회원분들이 일일이 알기란 매우 어렵습니다. 먹튀다이스키는 이러한 정보들을 집약하여 직관적으로 회원분들이 알 수 있도록 제공하고 있습니다. 나아가 수집된 정보들을 회원분들에게 투명하게 공개함으로써 더욱 많은 회원분들이 안전한 배팅 환경을 제공받을 수 있도록 지원하고 있습니다.
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In case you didn’t already understand, WordPress is a quite massive deal.
Nearly eighty million web sites and blogs make use of a few shape of woocommerce help. That’s essentially the populace of Germany, only for reference.
As a CMS (content material control device), wordpress help developer has 59% of the marketplace share. There also are over 44,000 plugins to be had for WordPress which have been downloaded over a thousand million times.
So if we are saying that WordPress is a massive deal, you'll agree.
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WordPress.com and WordPress.org aren't the identical, however they're similar
Let’s begin with the maximum confusing. So Wordpress Consultant itself is a loose, open supply content material control device. Essentially, its software program that permits humans to create, organize, and replace web sites while not having to manually code each page.
Now, WordPress basically is available in forms.
First, there may be WordPress.com. Wordpress Consultant is a weblog web website hosting carrier now no longer absolutely unique from Blogger. It permits someone to setup a loose internet site that operates on a custom model of the wordpress services software program. This model is constrained in what subject matters and plugins it is able to use.
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Tongkat Ali ist eine Pflanze beheimatet in Südostasien. Sie gehört zur Gattung der Bittereschengewächse und Ihr botanischer Name lautet “Eurycoma longifolia”. Es gibt noch eine weitere Reihe länderspezifischer Namen
wie z. B. “Pasak Bumi”, wie die Pflanze in Indonesien genannt wird oder “longjack”, die allgemeine Bezeichnung für Tongkat Ali Kaufen in den USA, Kanada und Australien.
Das Ursprungsland von Tongkat Ali Kaufen ist Indonesien, daher findet man auch dort auch die größten Bestände. Weitere Vorkommen gibt es in Ländern wie Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam und Laos.
Die Einnahme von Tongkat Ali Kaufen empfiehlt sich insbesondere für Leistungssportler, die einen schnellen
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Generell empfiehlt sich eine Einnahme von Tongkat Ali für alle Männer ab dem 30ten Lebensjahr, da in dieser Phase nachweislich die Produktion von körpereigenem Testosteron zurückgeht. Dies macht sich vor allem dadurch bemerkbar dass die körperliche Leistungsfähigkeit nachlässt, die Lust auf Sex spürbar abnimmt und
dadurch allgemein das Selbstwertgefühl negativ beeinflusst wird.
Mit der Einnahme von Tongkat Ali können Sie nachweislich Ihre Libido Steigern, Ihr Testosteron erhöhen und Ihre gewohnte Lebensenergie aus den jungen Jahren Ihres Lebens wieder herbeiführen. Hier können Sie übrigens
weitere Informationen bekommen zum Thema ‘Libido steigern‘ ganz natürlich. Sollten Sie daran interessiert sein lohnt es sich auch unseren Artikel über Butea Superba zu lesen.
Tongkat Ali wächst als Strauch und kann Höhen von bis zu 12 Metern erreichen. Typischerweise dauert es 10-15 Jahre bis solche Ausmaße erreicht werden. Der Strauch trägt anfangs grüne Blüten die sich im Laufe der
Zeit, bis zur Reife, rot färben.
Allerdings sind die Blüten im Hinblick auf die Wirkung der Pflanze weniger interessant. Der wertvolle Teil verbirgt sich unter der Erde.
Im Laufe der Jahre wachsen die Wurzeln teilweise senkrecht und bis zu mehrere Meter tief in den Boden, was die Ernte zu einer schweren und mühsamen Arbeit werden lässt. Je älter die Wurzeln sind, desto höher
ist auch die Anzahl der Wirkstoffe.
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360Guide was born from passion for action sports, passion for writing and interest in the Internet. We have been snowboarding and surfing for a long time. We also enjoy wakeboarding and mountain biking and actually any sport that gives you adrenaline, soul, lifestyle, puts you outside and connects you with nature. Mountain Bike T-shirts
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ARTICLE: 우리카지노는 대한민국의 바카라 업계를 장악하고 있는 카지노사이트 입니다. 우리카지노가 대한 민국에서 장악한 바카라 시장점유율이 50%가 넘고 10년 넘게 온라인 바카라 시장을 장악해왔기 때문에 대한민국에서는 우리카지노를 모르는 사람은 드뭅니다. 이런 바카라 업계의 독보적인 입지 때문에 늘 유명하거나 최고만을 찾는 사람들이 카지노사이트를 찾을때는 늘 우리카지노를 찾습니다.바카라를 처음 시작하시는 초보자분들에게도 우리카지노에서 카지노사이트를 시작하시기 좋은 환경입니다. 우리카지노사이트에서는 신규가입시 3만쿠폰을 지급 해주기 때문입니다. 사람들이 늘 1등만을 찾는 이유는 분명 있습니다. 다른 카지노사이트와는 달리 우리카지노를 이용하실시 에이전트를 끼고 게임을 하신다면 본사 이외에 활동쿠폰 및 오링쿠폰을 별도로 제공해주고 있기 때문입니다. 이러한 이유들 때문에 카지노사이트 업계에서 바카라를 즐기신다면 다들 우리카지노를 선호 하십니다. 카지노사이트에서 바카라를 이기기 물론 어렵습니다. 하지만 우리카지노의 에이전트를 끼고 바카라를 즐기신다면 승산이 있다고 봅니다. 우리카지노 에이전트의 연락처는 홈페이지로 연락하시면 언제든지 부담없이 소통가능 합니다. 카지노사이트를 선정할때는 바카라를 다른곳보다 유리하게 즐길 수 있는 카지노를 선택해야한다고 생각합니다. 그것이 바로 우리카지노 입니다. 이상으로 우리카지노와 바카라 카지노사이트 사이의 상관관계를 알아보았습니다 바카라사이트.
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Most children are very self-expressive verbally, but they often need guidance with learning how to pick up on non-verbal communication. Since animals can’t talk, kids must pay attention to little signs such as wagging tails and squirming. At the petting zoo, adults help to model gentle behavior with children to teach them when an animal is saying they are ready to be held and when they want to be put down. As children get to know the "critters" even better, it is fun to watch them start to adjust their behavior to communicate with their favorites. For example, you will see a child learn to crouch and wait patiently with their hand out for a shyer animal to come over. Other times, with a playful young pup, they may be a little more rambunctious.
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รับเขียนโปรแกรม Custom Application เชื่อมตอ่ กบั Software Package ตา่ งๆ เชน่ Microsoft Dynamic, SAP, Oracle ผ่าน SDK หรือ API รับเขียนโปรแกรมมือถือ รับเขียนโปรแกรม mobile application รับท า app ตามความต้องการของลกู ค้า ทงั้ iOS, Android รับพฒั นาโปรแกรมมือถือด้วย Native Mobile application โดยทมีงานมืออาชีพ
รับเขียนโปรแกรม ตามความต้องการของลกู ค้า รับท า app
ท าไมถึงเลือกเรา
ทมีงานมีประสบการณ์ในการท างาน รับเขียนโปรแกรมให้กบั บริษัทตา่ งๆ
มีกระบวนการท างานที่ชดัจน โดยใช้systems development life cycle เป็นกระบวนการพฒั นาระบบ ลกู ค้าจงึมนั่ ใจได้วา่ จะได้งานที่ตรงความต้องการและมีคณุ ภาพ บริการดแู ลโปรแกรม อพัเกรดโปรแกรม แก้ไขโปรแกรม ตลอดอายสุ ญั ญา ลกู ค้าจงึมนั่ ใจได้วา่ โปรแกรมที่จ้างเขียนจะมีคนดแู ลแนน่ อน และ ไมต่ ้องไปจ้างพนกังานมาดแู ลตอ่ เอง
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يعتبر موقع دليل الكويت من اكبر المواقع فى دولة الكويت التى تتيح لك ان تتواصل مع عمالة فنية على اعلى مستوى مما يميز الموقع على مستوى الوطن العربي وليس دولة الكويت فقط ومن اهم الخدمات التى يقدمها الموقع وهي خدمة صباغ وايضا صباغ الكويت تعتبر تلك الخدمات من اهم الخدمات التي يحتاجها المواطن فى دولة الكويت لما يرجع من اهمية جودة العمل النهائي لذلك نقدم الخدمات فى الكثير من المناطق مثل صباغ في الفروانية و صباغ مبارك الكبير
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